So Iran has enough Uranium for three nuclear devices? I hear some people in Israel cry: “shit!”
Here are some arguments for and against a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities:
For Argument:
• Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel off the map. Rafsanjani (former president and internationally recognized ‘moderate’) has called Israel a “one bomb state”. Jews take genocidal threats very seriously.
• Sanctions don’t work, and the four rounds of UN, plus addition EU and US led sanctions don’t appear to be any difficult.
• Radical Islam, be it Sunni or Shia’ has been willing to sacrifice martyrs for a greater ‘jihadi’ goal.
• Iran would respond to any attack on its territory with rockets on Israel from Tehran, as well its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Southern Lebanon respectively. Israel would likely suffer thousands of casualties. However, as the argument goes, this ‘relatively small loss’ is nothing compared to the nuclear holocaust that is supposedly on the cards.
• Destroying the nuclear facilities would signal a grave failure for Ahmadinejad and his regime. This embarrassment could well undermine the stability of the Iranian regime, igniting potentially ‘green flames’ that are still burning from the fraudulent election results of last year. Political upheaval in Iran leading to a more moderate democratic regime would certainly be a positive step for the region.
• Iran cannot be allowed to gain nuclear weapons, not only because of the threat to Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Gulf States do not fancy a nuclear Persian superpower on their doorstep any more than Israel. A nuclear Iran would become the regional hegemon, threatening (albeit passively) all those Sunni nations in its vicinity. This triggers a chain reaction: Nuclear proliferation throughout the region. Nuclear devices would start falling into the hands of extremely unstable regimes, regimes that often support Wahhabists or regimes which simply do not have the ability to stop them. The ‘briefcase bomb’ scares Europeans, Americans and Israelis alike. If Israel can stop this chain reaction with a military strike, they might just be allowed to do it.
Against Argument:
• Israel can’t do this without America’s help. Permission to fly over Saudi Arabia and Iraq as well as American support fighters and mid-flight refueling render a unilateral Osirak style (Iraq 1981) strike extremely unlikely. The current tension between the Israeli and American administrations would almost certainly deter any unilateral steps. Bibi would need Obama’s green light. Any attack without this acquiescence and Ahmadinejad’s dream of irreparable damage between the ‘big Satan’ and ‘little Satan’ has the potential of being realized.
• A strike on Iran is the only ‘sure-fire’ way of guaranteeing rockets on Israel (Hezbollah alone has over 50,000 rockets sitting pretty, aimed at the Jewish state right now). A strike on Iran today, means a war on three fronts for Israel tomorrow (in fact, it would probably arrive later today!).
• A strike on Iran could potentially unite the Iranian people behind the regime through a potent mixture of xenophobia and jingoism. • What are the chances that Iran would actually nuke Israel? o They would be guaranteed a reprisal, either from America’s nuclear arsenal or from Israel’s ‘non-existent’ nuclear-tipped warheads. Would Ahmadinejad or even the Ayatollah’s be ready to risk the deaths of thousands (or potentially hundreds of thousands) of their own citizens to attack Israel?
o Just how “irrational are is the Iranian leadership”? Stalin and Mao, who killed millions of their own people sat on nuclear weapons for years and did not use them. Surely Ahmadinejad’s calls are nothing more than hot air?
o Would Iran attack Israel with nuclear weapons when it would mean leaving parts of the holy Islamic soil (as they see it) uninhabitable because of the nuclear fall out?
o Would Iran attack Israel with nuclear weapons and risk killing thousands of Palestinians (and Israeli Arab civilians) in the process? Attack or not-to-attack, that is the question!
What would you do if you were Mr. Netanyahu?
